"With inflation declining, mortgage approvals on the rise, and rumours of an imminent base rate reduction by the Bank of England, buyer confidence has received a much-needed boost in 2024."
- Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals
The number of UK residential transactions in March totalled 86,980, 9% lower than March 2023 but 20% higher than February 2024, according to the latest HMRC statistics.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, residential transactions totalled 84,200, 6% lower than March 2023 and 1% higher than February 2024 - the third consecutive month-on-month increase.
On an annual basis, seasonally adjusted residential transactions decreased by 17% on the previous financial year, falling from 1,208,310 in 2022-2023 to 999,460 in 2023-2024. This is the lowest level of seasonally adjusted residential transactions since financial year 2012-2013.
Iain McKenzie, CEO of The Guild of Property Professionals, commented: “A third consecutive rise in home sales in March indicates a reviving property market, as improving economic conditions ease household financial burdens.
“With inflation declining, mortgage approvals on the rise, and rumours of an imminent base rate reduction by the Bank of England, buyer confidence has received a much-needed boost in 2024.
“Buyers have adjusted their expectations in line with the changes in their affordability, but sellers are also much more open to negotiate, helping to get more sales over the line.
“This improving economic outlook has also been encouraging more first-time buyers who were previously hesitant or struggling to enter the market due to higher mortgage rates.
“If we finally see a reduction in the Bank of England's base rate next week — which has remained at 5.25% since August last year — this could provide a significant boost to sales as we move further into 2024.
“Such a move would enhance affordability, enabling more prospective buyers to secure their dream properties."
Anna Clare Harper, CEO of sustainable investment adviser GreenResi, added: “Transactions are down by 6 per cent compared with the previous year, and yet pricing is relatively stable.
“Among homeowners and aspiring homeowners, we often hear concerns about an impending house price crash due to slowing demand.
“However, this is unlikely for several reasons. Firstly, housing demand is driven by necessity: we all need a roof over our heads. Secondly, many homeowners have no mortgage or need to sell at a price below valuations in previous years. Finally, with a general election looming this is ever more relevant: no political party will put in place policies that risk harming house prices, as this is guaranteed to lose votes.
“For this reason, fears of a house price crash are over-blown, whether they come from home owners or elsewhere in the real estate market, for example commercial property, which has experienced significant re-pricing unlikely to be matched by residential.”
