"It’s been a promising start to the year with mortgage lending seeing an uptick, mortgage approvals doing the same, and even house prices starting to slowly climb after a period of stagnation."
- CEO of Octane Capital, Jonathan Samuels
Mortgage lending has fallen by 28.6% in the past year, however, seasonal housing market trends could bring a welcome boost to mortgage lending totals over the coming months, according to the latest analysis by Octane Capital.
Octane analysed gross mortgage lending data from the past two years (March 2022 - Feb 2024) to understand how the amount of money being lent to homebuyers has changed.
The latest figures show that over the past 12 months, mortgage lending in the UK came to an accumulated total of £217.7 billion.
This marks an annual decline of 28.6% compared to figures from the previous 12 months when lending totalled £304.9 billion.
There are a number of contributing factors leading to the decline in mortgage lending over the past year, not least the increased cost of borrowing due to heightened interest rates and the overall cost of living crisis, both of which have limited buyer purchasing power and, as a result, mortgage lending market activity.
But, looking forward, it seems the past year’s housing market troubles could be finally lifting, with mortgage approval numbers increasing as a hold on interest rates has helped to steady the market.
In addition, further analysis from Octane Capital shows that historic seasonal housing market trends are likely to bring a welcome boost over the coming months.
Over the last five years, the summer season has seen mortgage lending totals increase by an average of 11.7% compared to the spring months.
This summer boost has occurred every year over this five-year span, with the largest single bump coming in summer 2023 when mortgage lending totals rose by 24.6%.
CEO of Octane Capital, Jonathan Samuels, commented: “There is a real sense of optimism in the UK property market at the moment. It’s been a promising start to the year with mortgage lending seeing an uptick, mortgage approvals doing the same, and even house prices starting to slowly climb after a period of stagnation.
"The picture is set to improve further as spring makes way for summer and seasonal market trends bring a healthy boost to the market. As such, we expect house prices to continue to stabilise which will inevitably tempt more sellers back to the fold.”
