"With the ball in the buyer’s court and the pick of a big crop to choose from, sellers need to be pricing competitively to find a buyer, particularly with affordability still very stretched."
- Tim Bannister, director of property at Rightmove
The average price of property coming to the market for sale has risen by 0.3% this month, according to the latest Rightmove data, a much lower monthly increase in asking prices than is typical at this time of year, with the long-term average for October at 1.3%.
This much more muted Autumn price bounce comes as buyer choice increases to a level not seen for ten years, putting downwards pressure on price growth.
With a greater choice of properties to consider, buyers are making use of their increased negotiating power, helping to keep price rises subdued. However, market activity remains strong despite some uncertainty created by the upcoming Autumn Budget. Rightmove says this month’s limited price growth is also in part down to some sellers heeding agents’ caution to price attractively to find a buyer, particularly with seller competition rising, helping to keep activity moving. Affordability remains stretched, limiting buyers’ purchasing power, but there are "encouraging signs of this improving next year", the figures show.
The latest snapshot of sales activity shows that the number of sales being agreed is now 29% ahead of the same period last year. Therefore, sales activity has not only bounced back from the low of last year but has continued on an upward trajectory. There is also a healthy level of underlying buyer demand as people continue to plan their next move. The number of people contacting agents about homes for sale is up by 17% compared with this time last year.
However, despite this strong housing market activity, the number of new properties coming to the market and the time they are taking to sell are both increasing, resulting in a rise in available homes for sale. This reflects that some aspiring buyers are still priced out of the market. The number of available homes for sale is 12% higher than at this time last year, but also the average number of homes for sale per estate agent branch is at its highest since 2014. Competition for buyers is particularly intense at the top-end of the market, where the number of four-bedroom detached houses and five-bedroom-plus homes available for sale is 17% ahead of last year.
After a long run of mortgage rate drops helped by the August Bank Rate cut, rate falls are stalling for the moment against a backdrop of geopolitical tension. The average five-year fixed rate is now 4.61%, up slightly from 4.55% last week, the first weekly increase since May. Though this is still a big improvement from the average of 6.11% at the peak in July 2023, and is only a very slight increase, the upward swing in rates may be a dent to home-buyer confidence. Rightmove’s Energy Bills Tracker also highlights the impact that rising energy prices are having on household finances. As an example, the average annual energy bill for a home with the typical Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) rating of D, is £2,465, up by 10% or £224 compared to September due to the price cap increase at the start of this month.
Despite these affordability pressures, there are positive signs for 2025. The financial markets are still predicting two Bank Rate cuts before the end of the year. While mortgage rates are not expected to return to the ultra-low levels of recent years, Rightmove says further drops, when combined with wage rises and muted house price growth, "would be a big step forward for home-buyer affordability".
Tim Bannister, director of property at Rightmove, commented: “This month’s subdued price growth comes as buyer choice soars to a level not seen since 2014. With the ball in the buyer’s court and the pick of a big crop to choose from, sellers need to be pricing competitively to find a buyer, particularly with affordability still very stretched. Some sellers appear to be acting on this caution, contributing to limited price growth and better buyer affordability. This is helping to keep the number of sales being agreed consistently and strongly ahead of the quieter market of this time last year. We’re not seeing activity slow down, but some estate agents report that some movers are now waiting for Budget clarity and anticipated cheaper mortgage rates later this year. However, others state that movers are largely just getting on with plans.
“Despite a Budget-shaped cloud on the horizon, the big picture still looks positive for the market heading into 2025. Market activity remains strong, despite affordability pressures on movers. Once we have more certainty about the contents of the Budget, hopefully followed by speedy second and third Bank Rate cuts, we could see another surge in market optimism like we had in the Summer. Affordability is still the biggest barrier facing many movers, with mortgage rates still high, so if the expected two cuts come to fruition it could be the boost that many buyers-in-waiting need. 2025 could see the return of the previously priced out buyer.”
