"The MPC has been clear that it will not rush to cut rates until inflation is under tight control and the recent inflation numbers proved that this won’t be a journey without some bumps along the way"
- David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages
Following today's decision by the Bank of England to hold interest rates, a panel of experts are in agreement that the base rate will not come down until at least 20th June 2024.
Finance comparison website, Finder, brought together a panel of academics, economists, mortgage and savings experts, to ask them for their predictions on what will happen to the base rate for the rest of 2024, and the impact this will have on the UK economy.
70% do not expect the base rate to fall until at least 20th June, with 50% predicting the MPC will choose to lower rates in the June meeting, and 20% believing that the base rate will not be brought down until the following meeting on 1st August.
These experts believe that the Bank of England is likely to take a much more cautious approach to battling inflation, and will therefore be in no rush to bring interest rates down prematurely.
Luciano Rispoli, senior lecturer in economics at the University of Surrey, said: “I think the Bank will want to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach. It's true inflation is coming down but, in my view, the monetary policy committee wants to see more continuous sustained decreases towards the 2% target”. He added that cutting interest rates at this point “might ‘undo’ all the progress made in terms of battling inflationary pressures”.
George Sweeney, deputy editor at Finder, agreed: “I don't expect them to make forward-thinking changes like lowering rates until they have hard data (which is backwards-looking) that clearly spells out an easing of inflationary pressure”.
David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, expects the Bank of England will wait until 01st August to bring down interest rates. He said “the MPC has been clear that it will not rush to cut rates until inflation is under tight control and the recent inflation numbers proved that this won’t be a journey without some bumps along the way”.
Other experts predicted that the base rate may come down sooner than this, with 20% under the belief that the base rate will be lowered in the meeting on 9th May, citing the anticipated decline in energy prices as a key driving factor. Sam Miley, managing economist and forecasting lead at CEBR, explained: “Inflation is expected to slow sharply from April as a result of energy price changes. This is the first meeting after that policy change.”
Just one of the experts expects interest rates to fall in the meeting on 21st March. Alan Shipman, senior lecturer in economics at the Open University, said: “by March, the weakness of investment and GDP growth will make it clearer that the Bank raised rates too far, too fast in 2022 and 2023”.
Base rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2024
When asked what they predict the base rate will be in the final MPC meeting of the year (19th December), 7 out of 10 expect interest rates to fall to 4.5%. The experts noted the potential risks of a minor recession but remained optimistic that rates would gradually come down throughout the second half of the year.
Kate Steere, editor at Finder, commented: “If rate cuts are not starting until mid-way through 2024, the bank will want to do this gradually so it can monitor the impact. It remains a balancing act between tackling inflation and protecting economic growth.”
David Hollingworth echoed this sentiment, adding: “Unless the first cut comes soon that could mean that we don’t see the rate cuts even reach a full percentage point before the end of the year.”
Despite expectations that there will be “a slow downward trajectory for rates”, David McMillan, professor in finance at the University of Stirling, also noted that current geopolitical risks could derail these predictions. He said: “There obviously remains risks on the horizon, predominantly in the form of geopolitical risks, which could have an impact on energy prices. This could, however, have the double effect of raising inflation while tipping the UK into a deeper recession.”
The remaining members of the panel were undecided, with 1 out of 10 predicting a fall to 4%, 1 out of 10 anticipating a fall to 3.75% and 1 in 10 believing that the rate will sit at 4.75% by the end of the year.
Luciano Rispoli, who expects interest rates to fall by a more modest 0.5% by the end of 2024, explained that “the economy has just embarked on a downward path in terms of inflation adjustment and decreasing interest rates significantly might work against this”.
