"November’s interest rate cut and a more dovish approach from the Bank of England may have contributed to the boost in sentiment at the end of the year. "
- Kate Davies, executive director of IMLA
While intermediary confidence in the outlook for the mortgage industry improved in the second and third quarters of 2024, after October’s Budget it reverted to almost exactly the same levels as Q1, according to the latest figures from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA).
By the mid-year point, confidence on three measures (market outlook, intermediary sector and own business) had returned to a long-run, pre-Truss ‘norm’, but by the fourth quarter confidence was guarded, with only 22% of intermediaries saying they felt ‘very confident’ in the market outlook, 65% ‘fairly confident’, 10% ‘not very confident’ and 2% ‘not at all confident’, just a 1% variation on the report’s results for Q1 2024.
Brokers expressed greater faith in the intermediary sector itself than the wider market and their confidence grew over the quarter, with 41% describing themselves as very confident in the sector and 51% fairly confident in December.
Optimism about their own businesses measured the most strongly among brokers in Q4 as it has done all year, and again matched the results for Q1, with 42% saying they were very confident and 53% fairly confident over the three months. These readings improved month-on-month, with 56% in the ‘very confident’ camp by December and 41% in the ‘fairly confident’.
Business split across the sectors was very similar to earlier quarters, with residential lending continuing to account for around two-thirds of intermediaries’ business, buy-to-let down slightly at 22% and specialist lending edging up to 12%.
Kate Davies, executive director of IMLA, said: “October’s Budget dealt a blow to UK confidence across the board, including the mortgage market. However, November’s interest rate cut and a more dovish approach from the Bank of England may have contributed to the boost in sentiment at the end of the year.
“Throughout 2024, intermediaries have consistently expressed more confidence in their own businesses than the market itself, which is testament to their faith in their ability to keep delivering in the face of adversity.
“When it comes to sub-sectors of the market, it is no surprise that buy-to-let has contracted slightly given the current conditions, the increase in stamp duty and the looming Renters’ Rights Bill, while a gradual rise in the proportion of specialist cases makes sense in an increasingly complex and challenging economic environment.
“It will be interesting to see whether remortgaging starts to take dominance over product transfers in the year ahead, as falling rates should improve affordability and provide more opportunities for existing borrowers to shop around the whole market with the help of their broker.”
