General election 2024: What's been promised, what's being prioritised, and what's the outlook for the property market

With 2024 arriving, it can only mean one thing. It’s the year of the next general election of course!

We’re all on the edge of our seats for an official announcement, but Autumn is looking likely. Rishi Sunak is working under the assumption that a general election will be held in the second half of the year.

A “working assumption” isn’t a firm commitment though. Should the need arise, some believe a spring election could be around the corner.

Regardless of the exact timings, we know a general election is on the way. It must be held no later than January 2025. Meaning, we’re going to be hearing a lot of campaigning, promising, and filibustering from the main parties over the coming months.

There’s plenty to prioritise but arguably, the property market will likely take centre stage for many Brits. Both Labour and the Conservatives know this.

The Conservatives - five key priorities

Since January 2023, the Tories have had five key priorities: halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing debts, cutting NHS waiting lists, and cutting illegal migration. In the year since, we’ve seen mixed results from the government’s efforts.

Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, and the latest figures had CPI at 4% - dropping comfortably by more than half. Meanwhile, GDP between December 2022 and November 2023 just about eked out 0.5% in growth. Unfortunately, public debt, NHS waiting lists, and migration issues continue to prove challenging to resolve.

Property-wise, the government appears much more bullish, especially in more recent months. Despite everything we’ve seen, Lee Rowley, the Minister for Housing, recently assured the Conservatives would meet their pledge to build a million homes by the end of this Parliament.

Michael Gove has also been plenty busy and vocal in recent months. The Secretary of State for Levelling Up has threatened local authorities that fail to deliver housing, slammed housebuilders for land banking, called for levies on overseas homebuyers, and more. Although, Mr Gove also shifted house building targets to “advisory”, rather than mandatory in 2023, so that will be on many minds.

It may all boil down to what’s announced in the spring budget. We don’t know exactly what’s coming of course. But property investors should probably expect some notable announcements.

There will likely be a healthy amount of good news and bad. The good: there have been promises of more support for first-time buyers. The bad: there’s less room for tax cuts in the coming budget when compared to the last.

The countdown is on for the Conservatives to convince voters and investors alike that they have what it takes to turn the economy around, and sort the housing market. With Labour hot on their heels, the pressure is on.

The Labour party – five national missions

Labour knows victory is within grasping distance. While results vary between pollsters, all agree that the Conservatives are currently trailing Labour by several points. The opposition has clearly pounced on this, upping its rhetoric on its economic plans.

Whereas the Tories have five key priorities, Labour has five national missions: get Britain building again, switch on “Great British Energy”, get the NHS back on its feet, take back the streets, and break down barriers to opportunity.

On the economy, Labour plans to embrace “securonomics” – also known as modern supply-side economics. In layman’s terms, this means emphasis will be placed on higher labour supply, education, better infrastructure, and more R&D.

Or, as Labour itself puts it: “It means becoming more resilient. We must rebuild our ability to make, do and sell more here in Britain so we are less exposed to global shocks, and less at the mercy of countries like Russia who can cut off our supply chains on a whim”.

Labour’s key players are also focusing on housing, recognising it’s going to be a key battleground for votes. Keir Starmer, the man gearing up to be our next Prime Minister, has vowed to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years. Meanwhile, Matthew Pennycook, the Shadow Housing Minister, has plans to revamp the Right to Buy scheme should Labour win.

What it all means for the property market

Of course, we’ve only scratched the surface here. Much will be said by both Labour and the Conservatives over the coming months. Even more will likely be forgotten, downplayed, or dropped completely.

Politicians are fickle. Most people will, rightfully, take much of what they say with a pinch of salt. For example, we’ve already seen the current government pull away from various net zero strategies, while Labour’s £28bn green investment plan now seems up in the air.

There’s been plenty of tough talk on climate issues in recent years. But, as we’re all well aware by now – actions speak louder than words.

Property investors who give an unrealistic amount of credence to the chatter of Westminster risk being hit by the unexpected. Priorities shift based on what’s likely to get votes. Investors need to be prepared or at the very least, brace for the unexpected.

Besides, the outcome of a general election doesn’t actually have too much impact on the bottom line. House prices tend to move irrespective of whatever party is in power. And, for the most part, they move upwards.

Indeed, the lead-up to this general election may be defined by optimism. House prices grew at their strongest rate in a year in January, according to Nationwide. The Bank of England has signalled that rate cuts could be on the way. Business leaders, mortgage and property experts, buy-to-let investors and more are all feeling confident for the year ahead.