"Evidence of a diverging market continues to remain though, with Wales, the North West, Midlands and Northern Ireland all seeing positive market forces dominate in December"
In London, 48% envisaged not much response, with 28% saying the changes will increase overall market activity, higher than the average of 12%.
When contributors were asked whether they have seen an immediate increase in first-time buyer enquiries following changes to Stamp Duty, an overwhelming majority of 86% across the UK as whole said they hadn’t, although RICS noted this may have been influenced by the Christmas holidays.
Turning to activity, new buyer enquiries edged lower during December having stabilised somewhat in the previous report. A net balance of -15% of respondents noted a decline in demand (as opposed to an increase) compared with -5% in November.
Overall, the survey results continue to display a lack of momentum, with activity either broadly flat or slightly negative. The three month price expectations series remains negative at the national level, highlighting "a lack of conviction surrounding the near term outlook".
RICS expects a slight increase in house prices over the coming months, but the price gauge for London remains in negative territory, albeit less so than in any month since April last year.
In most other areas, survey results point to further price growth with the strongest figures being reported in Wales, Northern Ireland, the North West and the Midlands.
Over the coming year, respondents expect prices to increase in all areas with the exception of London (where prices are still expected to decline).
Agreed sales also fell at the national level in December. Scotland, Northern Ireland and the North East region were the only areas to have seen a pick-up in transactions over the month, whereas sales trends were either flat or negative across the rest of the UK.
Sales expectations nationally remain flat over the coming three months, however respondents are more optimistic over the twelve month horizon. Indeed after remaining broadly flat in the previous five months, sales expectations are now notably more positive and activity is anticipated to pick-up across all regions/countries (with London recording its first positive reading since last June).
Looking at supply, new instructions to sell continued to decline at the headline level, extending a run of 23 months in which this series has not posted a positive reading.
Comments from respondents continue to emphasise the adverse impact this is having on the market. Average stock levels on estate agents books remained broadly steady, still close to historic lows. Contributors were asked to compare the number of appraisals undertaken over the month with the same period last year. In December, the largest share of respondents (46%) stated that appraisals were lower.
However 23% noted that appraisals were higher on a like for like basis; this compares to only 15% of respondents in November that cited an increase in appraisals, signalling a possible improvement for the new instructions pipeline in the near future.
Brian Murphy, Head of Lending for Mortgage Advice Bureau, commented: "It would appear that surveyors in many areas observed a seasonal slow-down in the market in December, with the lead up to Christmas and holidays having their normal impact on activity levels, which is of course within normal expectations and nothing to worry about.
"Some suggest that this may also lead to a sluggish start to the New Year, however it would appear that this hasn’t been the case across the whole of the country, with some areas bucking the trend last month and seeing transaction levels and pricing remain strong. Evidence of a diverging market continues to remain though, with Wales, the North West, Midlands and Northern Ireland all seeing positive market forces dominate in December, whilst the London and South East slide continues.
"Overall, national sentiment from surveyors remains positive for the next 12 months after predictions of a cautious start to 2018. What’s particularly interesting to note in this months’ report is the split in opinions around the SDLT scheme for first-time buyers which was introduced in November.
"In London, more than double the number of surveyors felt that it would have a beneficial impact on the market than those of outside London. Of course, this is reflective of the value of property in the Capital, where those purchasing for the first time can expect to save up to £5,000 under the new scheme. However it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months and whether or not stimulus at entry level will have an impact further up the market.
"We observed that mortgage enquiries for first-time buyers were increased in December across the network, although of course it can take months for this to translate into finalised transactions.”
